Susan Paddock - Curriculum Vitae
Susan M. Paddock
RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 USA
tel: (310) 393-0411 ext. 7628
email: paddock at rand dot org
Citizenship: USA
Education
Professional Positions
2006–present Professor of Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School
1996–1999 Research Assistant, ISDS, Duke University, Durham NC
1998–1998 Summer Intern, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park NJ
1996 summer Summer Intern, Chemoinformatics Group, Glaxo Wellcome, RTP NC
1994–1995 Actuarial Intern, EW Blanch Company, Bloomington MN
1993–1994 Undergraduate Intern, Supercomputer Institute, University of Minnesota
Research Interests
Statistical methodology:
Bayesian methodology; Bayesian nonparametrics; hierarchical models; longitudinal analysis; missing data; multiple imputation; non-ignorable nonresponse
Substantive areas:
Drug policy; health care policy; Medicare; mental health; patient safety; substance abuse treatment and prevention, community-based participatory research
Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles
Paddock SM (2007) Bayesian Variable Selection for Longitudinal Substance Abuse Treatment Data Subject to Informative Censoring. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), 56, 293-311
Chandra A, Marshall GN, Shetty G, Paddock SM, Wong EC, Zatzick D, Luo G, Yamashita D-DR (2007) Barriers to Seeking Mental Health Care Following Treatment For Orofacial Injury at a Large, Urban Medical Center : Concordance of Patient and Provider Perspectives. Journal of Trauma, Injury, Infection and Critical Care, to appear
Paddock SM, Edelen MO, Wenzel SL, Ebener P, Mandell W, Dahl J (2007) Measuring Changes in Client-Level Treatment Process in the Therapeutic Community with the Dimensions of Change Instrument. American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, 33(4) to appear
Nuckols TK, Paddock SM, Bower AG, Rothschild JM, Fairbanks RJ, Carlson B, Panzer RJ, Hilborne LH (2007) Costs of Intravenous Adverse Drug Events in Academic and Non-academic ICUs. Medical Care, to appear
Chinman M, Hunter SB, Ebener P, Paddock SM, Stillman L, Imm P, Wandersman A (2007) The Getting To Outcomes Demonstration and Evaluation: An Illustration of the Prevention Support System. American Journal of Community Psychology, to appear
Nuckols TK, Bell D, Liu H, Paddock SM, Hillbourne LH (2007) Rates and Types of Events Reported to Established Incident Reporting Systems in Two U.S. Hospitals. Quality and Safety in Health Care, 16, 164-168
Edelen MO, Tucker JS, Wenzel SL, Paddock SM, Dahl J (2007) Treatment Process in the Therapeutic Community: Associations with Retention and Outcomes among Adolescent Residential Clients Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment. Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment, 32, 415-421
Paddock SM, Escarce JJ, Hayden O, Buntin MB (2007) Did the Medicare Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Prospective Payment System Result in Changes in Relative Patient Severity and Relative Resource Use? Medical Care, 45(2), 123-130
Lin R, Louis TA, Paddock SM, Ridgeway G (2006) Loss Function Based Ranking in Two-Stage, Hierarchical Models. Bayesian Analysis, 1(4), 915-946
Paddock SM, Ridgeway G, Lin R, Louis, TA (2006) Flexible Distributions for Triple-Goal Estimates in Two-Stage Hierarchical Models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 50(11), 3243-3262
Watkins KE, Paddock SM, Zhang L, Wells K (2006) Improving Care for Depression in Patients with Comorbid Substance Misuse. American Journal of Psychiatry, 163, 125-132
D’Amico EJ, Paddock SM, Burnam A, and Kung FY (2005) Identification of and Guidance for Problem Drinking by General Medical Providers: Results from a National Survey. Medical Care, 43(3), 229-236
Beeuwkes Buntin M, Datar Garten A, Paddock SM, Saliba D, Totten M, Escarce JJ (2005) How Much is Post-Acute Care Use Affected by its Availability? Health Services Research, 40(2), 413-434
Paddock SM, Wynn BO, Carter GM, Beeuwkes Buntin M (2004) Identifying and Accommodating Statistical Outliers when Setting Prospective Payment Rates for Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities. Health Services Research, 39(6), 1859-1880
Galvan FH, Collins R, Burnam MA, Kanouse DE, Paddock SM, Beckman R, Mitchell S (2004) Abuse in the Close Relationships of People with HIV. Aids & Behavior, 8(4), 441-451
Watkins KE, Hunter SB, Wenzel SL, Tu W, Paddock, SM, Griffin A, Ebener P (2004) Prevalence and Characteristics of Clients with Co-occurring Disorders in Outpatient Substance Abuse Treatment. American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, 30(4) 749-764
Buchanan JL. Andres P, Haley SM, Paddock SM, and Zaslavsky A. (2004) Evaluating the Planned Substitution of the Minimum Data Set-Post Acute Care for Use in the Rehabilitation Hospital Prospective Payment System. Medical Care, 42(2), 155-163
Caulkins JP, Pacula RL, Paddock S, Chiesa J (2004). What We Can – And Cannot – Expect From School-Based Drug Prevention. Drug and Alcohol Review, 23, 79-87
Buchanan JL, Andres P, Haley SM, Paddock SM, Zaslavsky A. (2003) An Assessment Tool Translation Study. Health Care Financing Review, 24(3), 45-60
Paddock SM, Ruggeri, F, Lavine M, West M (2003) Randomized Polya Tree Models for Nonparametric Bayesian Inference. Statistica Sinica, 13(2), 443-460
Paddock SM (2002) Bayesian Nonparametric Multiple Imputation of Partially Observed Data with Ignorable Nonresponse. Biometrika, 89(3), 529-538
Morral AR, McCaffrey DF, Paddock SM (2002) Reassessing the Marijuana Gateway Effect (with Discussion). Addiction, 97, 1493-1503
Watkins KE, Burnam MA, Kung FY, Paddock SM (2001) Care for Individuals with Co-Occurring Mental Health and Substance Use Disorders: A National Sample. Psychiatric Services, 52(8) 1062-1068
Tengs T, Winer E, Paddock SM, Aguilar Chavez O, Berry DA (1998) Testing for the BRCA1 Breast-Ovarian Cancer Susceptibility Gene: A Decision Analysis. Medical Decision Making, 18(4), 365-380
Peer-Reviewed Reports & Chapters
Paddock SM, Escarce JJ, Hayden O, Beeuwkes Buntin M (2005) Changes in Patient Severity Following Implementation of the Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Prospective Payment System. TR-258-CMS, RAND
Paddock SM, Wynn BO, Carter GM, Zhou AJ (2005) Possible refinements to facility-level payment adjustments for the Inpatient Rehabilitation Prospective Payment System. TR-219-CMS, RAND
Carter GM, Paddock SM (2005) Preliminary Analyses of Changes in Coding and Case Mix Under the Inpatient Rehabilitation Prospective Payment System. TR-213-CMS, RAND
Beeuwkes Buntin M, Carter GM, Hayden O, Hoverman C, Paddock SM, Wynn BO (2005) Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Care Use Before and After Implementation of the IRF Prospective Payment System. TR-257-CMS, RAND
Beeuwkes Buntin M, Escarce JJ, Hoverman C, Paddock SM, Totten M, Wynn BO (2005) Effects of Payment Changes on Trends in Access to Post-Acute Care. TR-259-CMS, RAND
Caulkins J, Pacula RL, Arkes J, Reuter P, Paddock S, Iguchi M, Riley J (2004) The Price and Purity of Illicit Drugs: 1981 through the Second Quarter of 2003. Office of National Drug Control Policy, Washington DC: Executive Office of the President (Publication Number NCJ 207768)
Arkes J, Pacula RL, Paddock S, Caulkins J, Reuter P (2004) Technical Report for the Price and Purity of Illicit Drugs Through 2003. Office of National Drug Control Policy, Washington DC: Executive Office of the President (Publication Number NCJ 207769)
Buchanan JL, Andres P, Haley S, Paddock SM, Young DC, Zaslavsky A (2002) Final Report on Assessment Instruments for a Prospective Payment System. MR-1501-CMS, RAND
Buchanan JL, Andres P, Haley S, Paddock SM, Young DC, Zaslavsky A (2002) Final Report on Assessment Instruments for a Prospective Payment System: Appendices. MR-1501/1-CMS, RAND
Carter GM, Beeuwkes Buntin M, Hayden O, Kawata JH, Paddock SM, Relles DA, Ridgeway G, Totten ME, Wynn BO (2002) Analyses for the Initial Implementation of Medicare’s Inpatient Rehabilitation Prospective Payment System. MR-1500-CMS, RAND
Carter GM, Beeuwkes Buntin M, Hayden O, Kawata J, Paddock SM, Relles D, Ridgeway G, Totten M, Wynn BO (2002) Executive Summary of Analyses for the Initial Implementation of the Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Prospective Payment System. MR-1500/1-CMS, RAND
Caulkins JP, Pacula RL, Paddock SM, Chiesa J (2002) School-Based Drug Prevention: What Kind of Drug Use does it Prevent? MR-1459-RWJ, RAND
Paddock SM, West M, Young SS, Clyde M (1998) Mixture Models in Exploration of Structure-Activity Relationships in Drug Design. Bayesian Statistics in Science and Technology: Case Studies 4, (eds: C. Gatsonis et al), Springer-Verlag, New York
Non-Peer Reviewed Articles and Technical Reports
Paddock SM, Edelen MO, Wenzel SL, Ebener P, Mandell W (2007) Pattern-mixture models for addressing non-ignorable non-response in longitudinal substance abuse treatment studies. WR-441-HLTH, RAND Corporation
Polsky D, Doshi JA, Escarce J, Manning W, Paddock SM, Cen L, Rogowski J (2006) The Health Effects of Medicare for the Near-Elderly Uninsured. NBER Working Paper No. 12511 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w12511)
Wenzel SL, Ebener PA, Watkins KE, Hunter S, Gilmore J, Griffin B, Paddock SM, Tu W (2006). A collaboration between researchers and practitioners to improve care for co-occurring mental health disorders in outpatient substance abuse treatment. WR-328, RAND (http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/2006/RAND_WR328.pdf)
Lin R, Louis TA, Paddock SM, Ridgeway G (2006) Ranking USRDS Provider-Specific SMRs from 1998-2001. http://www.bepress.com/jhubiostat/paper67/
Beeuwkes Buntin M, Partha D, Escarce J, Hoverman C, Paddock S, Sood N (2005) Comparison of Medicare Spending and Outcomes for Beneficiaries with Lower Extremity Joint Replacements. WR-271-MedPac, RAND (http://www.rand.org/publications/WR/WR271/)
Paddock SM (2003) A Bayesian Instrumental Variables Model with a Categorical Endogenous Covariate. Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association, 3160-3162
Carter GM, Hayden O, Paddock SM, Wynn BO (2003) Case Mix Certification Rule for Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities. DRU-2981-CMS, RAND
Beeuwkes Buntin M, Carter GM, Escarce J, Hayden O, Labor R, Paddock S, Popovic J, Relles D, Ridgeway G, Saliba D, Totten M, Wynn, B (2003). Workplan for the Monitoring and Refinement of the Inpatient Rehabilitation Prospective Payment System – Year 2. DRU-2940-CMS, RAND
Beeuwkes Buntin M, Carter GM, Buchanan J, Hayden O, Paddock S, Relles DA, Ridgeway G, Saliba D, Totten M, Wynn B (2002) Workplan for the Monitoring and Refinement of the Inpatient Rehabilitation Prospective Payment System. DRU-2769-CMS, RAND
Ebener P, Paddock S, Khosla S, McCaffrey D, Chien S (2001) Assessing Need for Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment Among the California Household Population. DRU-2740, RAND
Carter GM, Relles DA, Wynn BO, Kawata JH, Paddock SM, Sood N, Totten ME (2000) Interim Report on an Inpatient Rehabilitation Prospective Payment System. DRU-2309-HCFA, RAND
Paddock S, Abrams J, Muss H, Aisner J, Berry DA (1998) Choosing Dose of Megestrol Acetate in Metastatic Breast Cancer: A Bayesian Approach to Clinical Problem Solving. Discussion Paper 98-12, ISDS Duke University
Commentaries
Polsky D, Doshi JA, Thompson CE, Paddock S (2005) Differential Loss to Follow-up by Insurance Status in the Health and Retirement Study: Implications for National Estimates on Health Insurance Coverage. Archives of Internal Medicine, 165, 2537-2538
Ghosh Dastidar B, Paddock S (2005) Comment on “The impact of technology on the scientific method.” Chance, 18, 9-12
Congressional Testimony
School-Based Drug Prevention and Other Strategies to Reduce Drug Use. Oregon State House and Senate Judiciary Committees, March 2005. Documented in RAND Publication CT-237
Presentations
Bayesian Variable Selection for Analyzing Longitudinal Substance Abuse Treatment Data Subject to Informative Censoring
WNAR/IMS Meeting, 6/07
Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association, Salt Lake City, 7/07
Assessing Multiple Inferential Goals Using Flexible Prior Distributions in Two-Stage Hierarchical Models
Discussion of “Improving FBI Crime & Homicide Databases”
Hierarchical Modeling of Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Responses to Prospective Payment
International Conference on Health Policy Research, Boston MA 10/05
Addressing Missing Data Bias in Longitudinal Health Services Research Studies: Pattern-mixture Models for Measuring Substance Abuse Treatment Process
Addiction Health Services Research Meeting, Santa Monica, CA 10/05
School-Based Drug Prevention and Other Strategies for Reducing Drug Use (Invited)
Methamphetamine community training: “Meth in Your Communities – What Can YOU Do About It?” Salem, Oregon, 3/05
Chamber of Commerce, Salem, Oregon 3/05
Flexible Prior Distributions and Triple-Goal Estimates in Two-Stage Hierarchical Models
Invited Talk, UCLA Biostatistics Seminar, 11/04
Invited Talk, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 1/05
Contributed Talk, WNAR Regional Meeting, Fairbanks AK, 6/05
Invited Talk, Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association, Minneapolis, 8/05
Invited Talk, Baskin School of Engineering, Applied Math & Statistics, UC Santa Cruz, 1/06
Advances and Applications in Causal Inference
Session Discussant and Organizer, Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association, Toronto 8/04
Loss Function Based Ranking in Two-Stage, Hierarchical Models
Propensity Score Methods
Invited Talk to Journal Club, Robert Wood Johnson Clinical Scholars Program, UCLA, 9/03
A Bayesian Instrumental Variables Analysis With a Categorical Endogenous Covariate
Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association, San Francisco, CA 8/03
Characterizing Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities by Patterns of Care
AcademyHealth Annual Research Meeting, Nashville, TN 6/03
Identifying and Accommodating Unduly Influential Facilities in Developing a Prospective Payment System for Inpatient Rehabilitation Care
International Society for Bayesian Analysis Meeting, Tenerife, Spain 6/02
Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association, New York City 8/02
A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Multiple Imputation of Partially Observed Data
Invited Talk, New Researcher's Conference, International Mathematical Society 8/01
Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association 8/01
International Society for Bayesian Analysis Regional Meeting, Laguna Beach, CA 4/01
Invited Talk, UCLA Biostatistics Seminar, 11/00
Randomized Polya Trees: Bayesian Nonparametrics for Multivariate Data Analysis
Invited Talk, Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association, 8/00
Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association, 8/99
Invited Talk, Royal Statistical Society Workshop on Nonparametric Bayes, 7/99
Invited Talk, RAND Statistics Group, 1/99
Invited Talk, UCLA Department of Biostatistics, 1/99
Invited Talk, University of Minnesota Department of Statistics, 1/99
Invited Talk, Carnegie Mellon University Department of Statistics, 2/99
Invited Talk, University of Connecticut Department of Statistics, 2/99
Invited Talk, AT&T Shannon Laboratories Statistics Group, 2/99
Invited Talk, Los Alamos National Laboratory Statistics Group, 2/99
Invited Talk, University of Washington Department of Statistics, 2/99
Determining Customer Availability
Summer Intern Talk, AT&T Labs Research, Florham Park, NJ 8/98
Exploring Multivariate Data Structures using Nonparametric Bayesian Trees
6th Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, Spain 6/98
Mixture Models of Chemical Activity and Binding in Drug Design
Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics 4, Carnegie Mellon University, 9/97
Readings in Statistical Science, ISDS Duke University, 9/97
Graduate Student Seminar Series, ISDS Duke University, 2/97
Teaching Experience
Pardee RAND Graduate School, Instructor:
- Empirical Analysis II (Regression), Winter 2007
RAND Corporation Statistics Short Course Series, Instructor:
- Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, April 2003
Duke University - Teaching Assistant:
- Applied Regression Analysis, Spring 1997
- Statistics for Public Policy Makers, Fall 1996
- Introduction to Statistics, Fall 1995
Editorial Positions
Statistical Reviewer, Medical Care, 2004-present
Corresponding Editor, International Society for Bayesian Analysis Newsletter, 2001-2003
Refereeing
Biometrics, Health Policy, Health Services Research, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Medical Care, Statistics in Medicine, Survey Methodology
Grant Review
Agency for Healthcare Research & Quality Review Panel of Ambulatory Care Patient Safety Proactive Risk Assessment (HS-07-003), May 2007
National Institute of Mental Health Review Panels:
Review of applications for RFA-MH-06-001: Antidepressant Use and Suicidality, 2006
Review of applications for PA-06-154: Collaborative R01s for Clinical and Services Studies of Mental Disorders and AIDS, 2006
Reviewer of grants for the ASA/Bureau of Justice Statistics Small Grant Program, 2004-07
Professional Affiliations
American Statistical Association:
Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Section on Nonparametric Statistics
Section on Government and Social Statistics
Section on Statistical Computing and Statistical Graphics
Health Policy in Statistics Section
Survey Research Methods Section
Southern California Chapter
International Society for Bayesian Analysis
Western North American Region of the International Biometric Society
Organizing Roles in Scientific Meetings
Program Committee Member, 7th International Conference on Health Policy Research (ICHPR), to be held January 2008 in Philadelphia, PA
Topic Contributed Session Organizer, “Bayesian Methods for Longitudinal or Survival Data with Missing Data,” Joint Statistical Meetings, ASA, Salt Lake City 7/07
Member, ASA Southern California Chapter, Annual Workshop Organizing Committee, 3/07
Program Committee Member and Session Organizer, “Defense & Security,” Interface 2006, Pasadena CA
Topic Contributed Session Organizer and Discussant, “Advances and Applications in Causal Inference,” Joint Statistical Meetings, ASA, Toronto 8/04
Grants and Contracts
“Bayesian Pattern-Mixture Models For Quality Of Care Data.” Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), Grant, $99,951, 9/30/05-9/29/07. Role: Principal Investigator
“Group CBT for Depression in Clients with AOD Disorders.” National Institute on Alcohol Abuse & Alcoholism (NIAAA), Grant, $1,725,000, 9/20/05-6/30/10. Role: Statistician (K. Watkins, PI)
“Building Community Capacity to Conduct Effective Violence Prevention.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Grant, $899,184, 9/01/05-8/31/08. Role: Statistician (M. Chinman, PI)
“Evaluating the Economic and Clinical Impact of MEDLEY Medication Smart IV Stem, with the Guardrail Safety Software.” Alaris Medical Systems, Inc. (now Cardinal Health), Contract, $1,600,000, 4/15/03-12/31/05. Role: Statistician (A. Bower, PI)
“Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Prospective Payment System Monitoring: Assess and Refinements.” Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Contract, $767,552, 9/30/04-12/31/06. Roles: Statistician; co-PI from 5/29/06-12/31/06 (M. Beeuwkes Buntin, PI).
“Life Cycle Effects of Health Insurance on Elderly Health.” National Institutes of Aging. Grant. 9/15/04-6/30/07. Role: Statistician (D. Polsky, PI)
“Hierarchical Models in Health Services Research. National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.” Grant, $299,916. 12/1/02-8/31/05. Role: Investigator (T.A. Louis, PI)
“Design, Development, Implementation, Monitoring, and Refinement of Prospective Payment System for Inpatient Rehabilitation.” Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Contract, $5,908,651, 7/19/99 - 9/30/04. Role: Statistician (M. Beeuwkes Buntin, PI)
“Improving Care for Co-Occurring Mental Health Disorders.” Substance Abuse & Mental Health Services Administration. Contract, $319,668, 9/01/00 - 3/01/04. Role: Statistician (K. Watkins, PI)
Appointments and Elected Positions and Honors
Member, American Statistical Association Committee on Law and Justice, 2004-2008
Secretary/Treasurer, Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, American Statistical Association, 2004-2005
Graduate Fellowship and Scholarship, Duke University, 1995-1999
Phi Beta Kappa, University of Minnesota, 1994
Women's Club Scholarship, University of Minnesota, 1994
Waller Scholarship, University of Minnesota, 1992
President's Student Leadership Award, University of Minnesota, 1991
Presidential Scholarship, University of Minnesota, 1990-1992
President, Minnesota Freshman Council, University of Minnesota, 1990-1991
Service to the RAND Corporation
Statistician Recruiting Committee, 2003-present
Statistics Group Seminar Series organizer, 2000-2002
Mentor to 3 Ph.D. Statisticians, 1 M.S. Statistician
Community Service
Executive Committee, Math/Science Interchange, Los Angeles Chapter, 2005-present
Organizing Committee, Expanding Your Horizons Conference, Los Angeles CA, 2005-present
Objective: Encourage girls to consider careers in science, math & technology
Personal Interests and Accomplishments